Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bc1…3532 other 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$102 (+1%) realized +$105 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%32W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$6
other 15% $0
sports 13% +$3
politics 8% −$3
finance 6% −$1
economics 3% +$1
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.9% -6.0% 43% 14% -9.7%
≤30d 21 +1.1% -8.6% 33% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 49 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 4% -9.6%
all 96 -1.1% -10.6% 33% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -9.5%
10% -19.1% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$105
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses32 / 64
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage278d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 91¢ $207 $205 −$2 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $179 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $207 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $40 +$12 +30%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $487 −$26 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $228 +$3 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $401 +$7 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $240 +$1 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $350 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $543 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $215 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $207 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $13 −$1 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $192 −$4 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $266 +$7 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $199 $0 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $118 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $107 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $226 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $4 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $114 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $213 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $357 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $280 +$2 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $116 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $133 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $133 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $297 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $17 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $51 +$3 +5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $99 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $83 −$2 -2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $55 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $193 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $126 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $78 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $5 −$1 -15%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Mar 26 $16 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $167 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $135 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $145 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $193 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $20 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $187 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $52 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $40 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $15 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $117 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $63 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $66 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $75 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $69 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $231 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $228 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $13 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $203 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $199 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $219 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $225 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $85 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.67 · official $204.75 (match) · 648 history records