Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3B 0x3bbd…cefc crypto 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$323 (-2%) realized −$323 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate86%54W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$43
14 days−$165
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$33
crypto 39% −$198
other 8% −$117
finance 4% $0
economics 3% +$2
sports 2% −$48
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -13.4% -21.6% 50% 50% -71.1%
≤30d 14 -15.2% -23.3% 71% 14% -16.8%
≤90d 31 -9.8% -18.4% 81% 6% -10.7%
all 63 -7.5% -16.3% 86% 3% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 3% -11.5%
10% -24.3% 3% -20.0%
15% -31.6% 3% -27.7%
20% -38.4% 3% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$49 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$323
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses54 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage218d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? No 65¢ 64¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $52 −$51 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $12 +$8 +73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $231 −$122 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $239 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $188 +$9 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $225 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $107 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $216 +$4 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $207 +$3 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $8 +$2 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $5 −$4 -82%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $221 +$1 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $450 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 21 $973 +$5 +0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 15 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 15 $76 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 09 $213 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 02 $230 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 17 $625 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 13 $207 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 05 $414 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 02 $805 +$3 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 01 $409 +$2 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $205 +$1 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 29 $204 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 28 $1,745 +$8 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 20 $198 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 18 $390 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 10? Mar 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 10 $201 −$6 -3%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $381 +$3 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $64 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Jan 28 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? Jan 19 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 8? Jan 16 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 7? Jan 08 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 16? Jan 07 $61 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 15? Dec 16 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 12? Dec 15 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 9? Dec 09 $246 −$221 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 8? Dec 09 $246 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 6? Dec 07 $243 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 4? Dec 06 $235 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 3? Dec 04 $234 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 65¢ $66 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $52 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $12 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $108 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $231 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $240 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $235 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $3 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $101 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $100 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? SELL No 96¢ $96 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY No 87¢ $44 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY No 87¢ $44 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $230 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY No 98¢ $225 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? SELL No 10¢ $9 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY No $7 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $219 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 98¢ $216 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $207 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $97 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? BUY No $3 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? BUY No $0 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? BUY No $0 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? BUY No $2 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? BUY Yes $8 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? SELL No $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.50 · official $64.50 (match) · 259 history records