Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:32:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3B 0x3bbd…508d finance 81 markets active 3h ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,155 (+4%) realized +$2,155 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate51%41W / 40L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$602per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$52
14 days−$389
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 100% +$1,934
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.9% -17.6% 40% 20% -11.1%
≤30d 22 -18.2% -26.0% 36% 18% -11.0%
≤90d 60 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 27% -5.7%
all 81 +1.7% -7.9% 51% 31% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 31% -5.9%
10% -16.8% 19% -14.9%
15% ← realistic here -24.8% 10% -23.2%
20% -32.2% 10% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$760) neutral
Persistence
early +13% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
21.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$99 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses41 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$602
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $84 −$64 -76%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $556 −$32 -6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $466 +$42 +9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $1,683 −$49 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $164 +$51 +31%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 18 $298 −$244 -82%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,266 +$95 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $78 −$77 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 13 $589 −$40 -7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $479 −$70 -15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $911 −$36 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $410 −$222 -54%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $1,259 −$90 -7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $291 +$29 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $932 +$52 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1,683 +$337 +20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1,083 +$280 +26%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $409 −$161 -39%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $237 −$225 -95%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $663 +$419 +63%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $251 −$207 -82%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $262 −$10 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 22? May 23 $413 −$148 -36%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $478 +$13 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $1,013 +$298 +29%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $449 +$79 +18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 15? May 16 $327 +$54 +17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 14? May 15 $156 −$156 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 13? May 14 $1,030 −$405 -39%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12? May 13 $279 +$14 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11? May 12 $973 +$86 +9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8? May 09 $1,248 −$14 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7? May 08 $608 −$177 -29%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6? May 07 $211 −$211 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4? May 05 $431 +$441 +102%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 1? May 02 $555 −$69 -12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 30? May 01 $799 +$35 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 29? Apr 30 $384 +$660 +172%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $275 −$94 -34%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 27? Apr 28 $855 +$461 +54%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 24? Apr 25 $448 −$182 -41%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 23? Apr 24 $400 +$130 +32%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 22? Apr 23 $1,143 +$165 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 21? Apr 22 $760 −$15 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $767 +$91 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 17? Apr 18 $529 +$3 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 16? Apr 17 $593 +$60 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 15? Apr 16 $326 −$91 -28%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 14? Apr 15 $504 −$79 -16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 13? Apr 14 $835 +$77 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 0¢ $0 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 0¢ $0 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 1¢ $5 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 3¢ $5 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 3¢ $7 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 3¢ $3 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 3¢ $1 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 1¢ $1 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 1¢ $4 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 1¢ $2 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 2¢ $2 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 18¢ $40 15h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 21¢ $4 15h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 21¢ $4 15h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 21¢ $4 15h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 21¢ $4 15h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 21¢ $4 15h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 20¢ $14 16h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? SELL Down 11¢ $15 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 89¢ $75 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? SELL Down 10¢ $23 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 91¢ $74 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 96¢ $8 27h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 93¢ $75 27h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 87¢ $76 27h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 85¢ $3 27h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 70¢ $4 32h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 25¢ $47 32h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 32¢ $26 32h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 27¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records