Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bbc…e05d weather 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-3%) realized −$29 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate12%5W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -3.4% -12.6% 13% 3% -11.6%
≤30d 40 -3.5% -12.7% 12% 2% -11.6%
≤90d 40 -3.5% -12.7% 12% 2% -11.6%
all 40 -3.5% -12.7% 12% 2% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 2% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 0% -20.1%
15% -28.7% 0% -27.8%
20% -35.7% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses5 / 35
Open positions10
Markets (closed)40 / 50
History coverage7d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 30? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $77 $73 −$4 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 29? No 67¢ 55¢ $67 $54 −$12 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 30? No 50¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $39 $36 −$2 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 30? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $35 $30 −$4 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 30? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $34 $30 −$4 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 30? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $31 $24 −$7 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 30? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 29? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 29? No 72¢ 65¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 28? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 30? Jun 28 $69 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30? Jun 28 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 29? Jun 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 29? Jun 28 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 30? Jun 28 $66 −$5 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29? Jun 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 29? Jun 28 $51 −$4 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 30? Jun 28 $67 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 30? Jun 28 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 29? Jun 28 $72 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 30? Jun 28 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29? Jun 28 $40 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 30? Jun 28 $61 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 29? Jun 28 $60 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 30? Jun 28 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 30? Jun 28 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 30? Jun 28 $49 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 30? Jun 28 $64 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 30? Jun 28 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 30? Jun 28 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 29? Jun 28 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 30? Jun 28 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 29? Jun 28 $11 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 29? Jun 28 $24 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 29? Jun 28 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 29? Jun 28 $4 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 30? Jun 28 $69 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 28? Jun 28 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 28? Jun 28 $56 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 28? Jun 28 $0 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $52 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? Jun 28 $9 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 28? Jun 28 $26 −$6 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 28? Jun 28 $7 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $69 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 28? Jun 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 28? Jun 27 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 21 $13 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 21 $6 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 3m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 30? SELL No 67¢ $66 4m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 26m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 32m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $7 34m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 36m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 30? BUY No 69¢ $69 37m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 38m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $22 39m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 29? SELL No 58¢ $32 40m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 30? SELL No 67¢ $67 41m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 29? SELL No 48¢ $4 41m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 41m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 30? BUY No 50¢ $50 41m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 29? BUY No 48¢ $4 43m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 29? BUY No 58¢ $32 43m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 30? SELL No 62¢ $61 48m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 39¢ $35 49m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 51m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 29? SELL Yes 48¢ $47 59m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 30? BUY No 67¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 30? SELL No 66¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30? SELL No 64¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 30? SELL No 66¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 38¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 30? BUY No 67¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 30? BUY No 66¢ $66 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.59 · official $358.29 (match) · 153 history records