Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3bb1…3db9 other 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$76 (+1%) realized +$75 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%48W / 57L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$35
14 days+$43
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$60
other 32% +$4
politics 12% +$8
finance 3% +$2
crypto 1% +$2
tech 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.3% -7.4% 86% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 32 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 6% -8.5%
≤90d 37 +1.2% -8.5% 49% 5% -8.8%
all 105 +0.1% -9.5% 46% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -8.9%
10% -18.1% 1% -17.6%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.98 per $1 lost it wins $3.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses48 / 57
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage459d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $33 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $76 +$5 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $237 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $298 +$4 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $196 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $432 +$5 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $205 +$7 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $438 +$14 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $178 +$8 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $148 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $198 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $176 +$5 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $193 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $312 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $66 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $295 −$7 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $191 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $179 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $14 $0 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $179 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $360 +$2 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $466 −$5 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $107 +$30 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $128 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $446 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $272 −$6 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $162 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $1,124 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 12 $1,022 +$8 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $56 $0 -0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $20 −$3 -15%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Jul 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Iranian hackers release Trump emails by next Friday? Jul 10 $3 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 09 $11 $0 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $82 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $76 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $237 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $237 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $37 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $135 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $51 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $118 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $232 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $232 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $212 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $59 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $77 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $47 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $226 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $226 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $226 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $212 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $160 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $17 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $173 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $0 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $153 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.18 · official $33.18 (match) · 350 history records