Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bb1…25df crypto 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate60%43W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% +$17
crypto 44% +$6
other 0% −$16
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 30% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 +0.1% -9.4% 61% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 51 -0.0% -9.5% 57% 0% -9.6%
all 72 -4.7% -13.8% 60% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 3% -9.3%
10% -22.0% 3% -18.0%
15% -29.6% 3% -25.9%
20% -36.5% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses43 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage609d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 21 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? May 12 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28? May 07 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 22? Apr 28 $61 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 22? Apr 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 17? Apr 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 15? Apr 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 15? Apr 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $32 $0 -1%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 11? Apr 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? Apr 14 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 11? Apr 10 $32 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 9? Apr 08 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 8? Apr 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 2? Apr 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 28? Apr 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 25? Mar 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on March 20? Mar 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 21? Mar 24 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $32 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $32 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $32 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $32 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 44h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $32 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $32 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $32 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $32 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $32 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $32 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $32 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $32 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $32 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $32 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $32 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $32 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $31 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 260 history records