Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3B 0x3baf…4182 crypto 393 markets active 6d ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%384W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -3.8% -13.0% 95% 0% -13.8%
≤30d 384 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 393 -0.5% -10.0% 98% 0% -10.1%
all 393 -0.5% -10.0% 98% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses384 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)393 / 393
History coverage31d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 393 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $12 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 09 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 777 history records