Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3B 0x3baf…7d44 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$895 (+10%) realized +$895 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$475
14 days+$475
30 days+$488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$561
other 5% −$70
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -21.8% -29.2% 33% 21% -4.3%
≤30d 36 -13.2% -21.5% 42% 25% -4.3%
≤90d 36 -13.2% -21.5% 42% 25% -4.3%
all 36 -13.2% -21.5% 42% 25% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 25% -4.3%
10% -29.0% 17% -13.4%
15% -35.9% 11% -21.8%
20% -42.1% 8% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$22 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$895
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage18d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $88 +$242 +277%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2,008 +$201 +10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $232 +$4 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $184 −$9 -5%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $94 −$60 -64%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $383 −$10 -3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $451 −$48 -11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,060 +$96 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $200 −$7 -4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $348 −$42 -12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $665 −$162 -24%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 +$18 +18%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $330 +$303 +92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$3 -8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $50 −$5 -9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $203 +$61 +30%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $24 −$24 -99%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 $0 +4%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 $0 -2%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 +$2 +23%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Molde FK vs. Sandefjord Fotball: O/U 3.5 May 30 $8 $0 +3%
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $27 −$7 -24%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 14¢ $79 58m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 12¢ $35 59m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 88¢ $157 59m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $159 59m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 13¢ $39 59m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 40¢ $177 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 15¢ $43 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 15¢ $37 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 15¢ $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 15¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 15¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 15¢ $0 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 15¢ $43 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 15¢ $37 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 15¢ $8 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 16¢ $45 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 15¢ $46 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 15¢ $44 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 16¢ $49 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 75¢ $850 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $891 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $405 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $39 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $300 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $25 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $29 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $940 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 267 history records