Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3bae…885a sports 447 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$80,861 (+12%) realized +$89,830 · open −$8,969
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%253W / 190L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$1,547per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$8,357est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,587
7 days−$849
14 days+$17,128
30 days+$23,576
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$63,293
other 2% +$1,544
crypto 1% −$283
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.3% -21.5% 44% 44% -12.3%
≤30d 69 +0.5% -9.1% 55% 55% +4.1%
≤90d 438 +2.0% -7.7% 57% 53% +0.2%
all 443 +2.3% -7.4% 57% 53% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 53% +0.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 49% -9.4%
15% -24.4% 44% -18.1%
20% -31.8% 33% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$2,150) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,082 vs −$1,053 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$89,830
Unrealized−$8,969
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses253 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$8,357
Open positions4
Markets (closed)443 / 447
History coverage130d
Avg bet$1,547
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 35¢ 0¢ $4,059 $6 −$4,053 (-100%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Under 35¢ 0¢ $2,100 $3 −$2,097 (-100%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $1,833 $2 −$1,831 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 33¢ 0¢ $990 $2 −$988 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $597 −$597 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,372 −$1,372 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $871 −$850 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $1,767 −$1,767 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,214 −$240 -11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $508 +$492 +97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $911 −$911 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,186 +$1,803 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2,145 +$1,100 +51%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,006 −$1,006 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 14 $990 −$990 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,811 −$1,811 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $1,677 −$1,677 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,542 +$958 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $307 +$446 +146%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4,012 +$1,747 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,043 +$1,554 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,997 +$2,273 +114%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $998 −$998 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,039 −$123 -6%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $955 +$1,043 +109%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $3,433 +$1,567 +46%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,639 −$2,639 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,837 +$2,163 +76%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,837 +$2,163 +76%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $947 −$947 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $7,992 +$10,008 +125%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,030 +$1,970 +97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $3,185 +$1,815 +57%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2,118 −$2,118 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $2,005 −$2,005 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3,573 −$3,573 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4,173 +$5,827 +140%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4,345 +$1,655 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $3,132 +$1,063 +34%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5,682 +$1,006 +18%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3,873 +$3,649 +94%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2,030 +$967 +48%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $3,089 −$3,089 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $3,260 −$3,260 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2,068 +$1,510 +73%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $3,078 −$3,078 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,851 +$1,145 +62%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1,995 +$1,086 +54%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2,073 +$2,180 +105%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1,943 +$1,257 +65%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1,975 +$1,125 +57%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2,007 +$1,593 +79%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1,954 +$1,162 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,861 20m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $2,141 34m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $236 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $60 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $3,799 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $1,010 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 17¢ $871 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $1,301 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $71 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 59¢ $597 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $508 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $1,767 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 29¢ $276 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 29¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 29¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 40¢ $46 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 40¢ $1,919 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $1,935 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $3,989 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 54¢ $2,186 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $911 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $164 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 68¢ $2,244 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.17 · official $12.17 (match) · 1559 history records