Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bad…ed33 sports 114 markets active 2d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$120 (-5%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%55W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day65.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$178
other 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 38% -17.4%
≤30d 114 -10.6% -19.2% 48% 39% -16.4%
≤90d 114 -10.6% -19.2% 48% 39% -16.4%
all 114 -10.6% -19.2% 48% 39% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 39% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 30% -24.4%
15% -34.0% 18% -31.7%
20% -40.4% 13% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses55 / 59
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage6d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day65.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 -26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $2 $0 -13%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -16%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
England leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 15 $4 −$1 -26%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $7 $0 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 $0 -2%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $11 −$2 -14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $12 −$1 -11%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $19 −$6 -29%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$3 -9%
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey Jun 15 $104 −$14 -13%
ITF kiseljak: Josip Simundza vs Yannick Baluska Jun 15 $72 −$33 -45%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +126%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $4 +$4 +95%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +17%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$5 +95%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 +$1 +56%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $2 +$3 +137%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $16 +$4 +28%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $8 +$2 +28%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $35 +$15 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 11 $25 +$4 +15%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 201.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $27 +$20 +76%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $3 +$6 +223%
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 10 $2 $0 +12%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch Jun 10 $4 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 32¢ $1 37h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 22¢ $1 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 52¢ $2 37h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $2 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $2 37h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 59¢ $3 37h
England leading at halftime? SELL No 59¢ $3 37h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 51¢ $3 37h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $3 37h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 96¢ $6 37h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $4 37h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 89¢ $7 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 85¢ $9 37h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 87¢ $10 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 78¢ $11 37h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 32¢ $37 37h
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) SELL Spurs 93¢ $47 6d
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone SELL Francesco Forti 100¢ $4 6d
ITF Varnamo: Oskar Brostrom Poulsen vs Sandro Kopp SELL Sandro Kopp 97¢ $5 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens SELL Anastasia Potapova 100¢ $4 6d
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs SELL James McCabe 100¢ $14 6d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins SELL LG Twins 99¢ $2 6d
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu SELL Thijs Boogaard 100¢ $7 6d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles SELL Hanwha Eagles 99¢ $17 6d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Iva Jovic 100¢ $28 6d
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra SELL Solana Sierra 85¢ $84 6d
ITF Ceska Lipa: Sapfo Sakellaridi vs Raluca Georgiana Serban SELL Raluca Georgiana Serban 100¢ $3 6d
ITF Wuning: Haruka Kaji vs Ya Yi Yang SELL Ya Yi Yang 32¢ $18 6d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Mattia Bellucci 55¢ $22 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 442 history records