Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3B 0x3bab…eceb weather 1119 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$160 (+0%) realized +$162 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1087W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day75.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$759now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$15
14 days+$40
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$33
other 0% +$49
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 618 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 1103 +1.5% -8.2% 99% 0% -9.6%
all 1103 +1.5% -8.2% 99% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$37 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$759
Realized+$162
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1087 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1103 / 1119
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day75.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? No 97¢ 98¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? No 97¢ 96¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 99¢ 93¢ $46 $43 −$3 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 2? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 88°F or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 16? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $45 56m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $44 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $46 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $37 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $45 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $45 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $43 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $45 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $45 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $758.54 · official $758.54 (match) · 3500 history records