Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:17:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3B 0x3baa…96f4 sports 346 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$403 (+4%) realized +$470 · open −$67
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%174W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$542now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days+$367
14 days+$464
30 days+$420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$92
other 12% +$191
politics 2% +$1
world 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +19.8% +8.4% 54% 54% +34.5%
≤30d 113 +8.8% -1.5% 56% 56% +3.6%
≤90d 336 -0.6% -10.1% 52% 51% -6.4%
all 336 -0.6% -10.1% 52% 51% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 51% -6.4%
10% -18.7% 50% -15.4%
15% -26.5% 49% -23.6%
20% -33.7% 44% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$26 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$542
Realized+$470
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses174 / 162
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions9
Markets (closed)336 / 346
History coverage54d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $235 $237 +$2 (+1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ 60¢ $77 $79 +$2 (+3%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 52¢ $81 $71 −$10 (-12%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ 32¢ $100 $51 −$48 (-48%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 42¢ $37 $30 −$7 (-19%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $31 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 52¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Houston Astros 45¢ 42¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $35 +$23 +65%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $55 −$54 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $24 +$25 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $29 +$14 +50%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $14 +$18 +129%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $106 +$84 +79%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $343 +$157 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$199 +388%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $43 +$48 +114%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $13 +$14 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $18 +$8 +44%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $12 +$15 +129%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $64 +$16 +24%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$2 -6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $17 +$10 +57%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $16 +$12 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $14 +$13 +97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $10 +$12 +129%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $16 +$16 +97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $11 −$11 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $12 −$12 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $18 −$18 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $16 −$16 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 10 $47 −$46 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $11 +$10 +83%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $16 +$10 +60%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $19 +$13 +70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $73 +$12 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $17 +$16 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $15 +$16 +109%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $58 −$57 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $12 −$12 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 08 $19 −$19 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $10 +$21 +197%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $12 +$12 +101%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $18 +$10 +57%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $13 −$12 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $14 −$14 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $17 +$15 +93%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $14 +$10 +67%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $16 +$16 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $15 +$16 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $82 26m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 45¢ $17 1h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ $78 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $101 1h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 72¢ $238 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 45¢ $508 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $38 8h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 65¢ $20 32h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 38¢ $15 32h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $18 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 32h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $55 2d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 60¢ $35 2d
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 61¢ $0 2d
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 61¢ $3 2d
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 61¢ $3 2d
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 66¢ $29 2d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 49¢ $24 2d
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 61¢ $24 2d
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 61¢ $10 2d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 20¢ $51 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $14 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $343 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $106 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ $18 10d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $12 10d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $13 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $43 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $541.66 · official $1,044.73 · 550 history records