Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:00:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3ba8…9261 crypto 1235 markets active 6d ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$105 (-1%) realized −$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate62%761W / 474L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$77
14 days−$41
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -15.6% -23.6% 52% 49% -22.3%
≤30d 1156 -3.5% -12.7% 61% 44% -11.6%
≤90d 1235 -3.2% -12.4% 62% 44% -11.5%
all 1235 -3.2% -12.4% 62% 44% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 44% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 35% -20.0%
15% -28.4% 27% -27.7%
20% -35.5% 20% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses761 / 474
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1235 / 1235
History coverage76d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1235 Trades
no open positions (350 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2482 history records