Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b9e…f116 other 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$43 (-5%) realized −$45 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$54
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$4
sports 15% −$26
crypto 4% −$17
world 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -25.2% -32.3% 41% 38% -16.9%
≤30d 38 -24.6% -31.8% 39% 37% -16.9%
≤90d 64 -23.3% -30.6% 34% 33% -15.4%
all 64 -23.3% -30.6% 34% 33% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 33% -15.4%
10% -37.3% 25% -23.5%
15% -43.3% 23% -30.9%
20% -48.9% 12% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage80d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $61 $63 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $19 +$9 +48%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$5 -87%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$7 +344%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$8 -83%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $48 −$42 -88%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $35 +$16 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 $0 -8%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$4 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $57 +$12 +22%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$8 +104%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $7 −$4 -49%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 −$10 -92%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 +$7 +13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $86 +$19 +22%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -52%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 +$13 +51%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 +$13 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $21 +$5 +24%
Will "YOUR RAGE" win the streamer fight? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "SKI MASK" win the streamer fight? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest G Apr 06 $3 −$2 -60%
Will "RUBIUS" win the streamer fight? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs 1WIN (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Wild vs. Red Wings Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 05 $14 +$7 +47%
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 05 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +45%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group St Apr 05 $3 −$1 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $61 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 16h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $57 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $58 16h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $55 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.39 · official $63.39 (match) · 178 history records