Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b9d…f66f other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 45d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$18
crypto 8% +$7
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.2% -11.5% 38% 12% -12.9%
≤30d 8 -2.2% -11.5% 38% 12% -12.9%
≤90d 9 -2.7% -12.0% 33% 11% -13.0%
all 9 -2.7% -12.0% 33% 11% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 11% -13.0%
10% -20.4% 11% -21.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -28.9%
20% -35.1% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage45d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $26 −$4 -17%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$10 -20%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $26 +$7 +26%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $26 −$1 -4%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records