Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:25:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b96…8517 crypto 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate83%168W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -0.1% -9.7% 83% 45% -16.2%
≤30d 202 -0.1% -9.7% 83% 45% -16.2%
≤90d 202 -0.1% -9.7% 83% 45% -16.2%
all 202 -0.1% -9.7% 83% 45% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 45% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 22% -24.2%
15% -26.2% 14% -31.5%
20% -33.4% 4% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses168 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)202 / 202
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 202 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$17 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$14 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $46 −$44 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $128 −$57 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $102 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $32 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $19 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 409 history records