Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b95…2b1b world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$5
sports 7% −$5
other 4% $0
politics 3% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -11.9% -20.3% 0% 0% -20.3%
≤30d 15 -1.2% -10.6% 27% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 15 -1.2% -10.6% 27% 0% -10.2%
all 41 -2.0% -11.3% 44% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -10.6%
10% -19.8% 0% -19.2%
15% -27.5% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage477d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $54 −$6 -12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $182 −$1 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $54 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $109 +$2 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $53 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 25 $12 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 19 $6 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 17 $6 $0 -1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po May 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 11 $1 $0 -20%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9? May 08 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 07 $6 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 06 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 24 $4 $0 -13%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 23 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $19 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Thunder Mar 03 $10 $0 +1%
Eastern Washington vs. Montana Mar 03 $11 −$1 -10%
Clippers vs. Suns Mar 03 $15 −$4 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $40 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $47 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $42 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $12 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $37 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $21 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $15 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $54 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $51 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $4 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $40 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $15 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $36 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $15 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $5 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $50 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $19 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $11 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $30 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $60 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $12 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.20 · official $40.20 (match) · 150 history records