Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b94…94c2 world 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%42W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$6
politics 16% −$2
other 16% +$1
sports 6% −$8
economics 3% $0
finance 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$6
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 34 -0.5% -10.0% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 75 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 106 -4.1% -13.3% 40% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 2% -9.8%
10% -21.6% 2% -18.4%
15% -29.2% 2% -26.3%
20% -36.1% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses42 / 64
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage538d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $31 −$1 -4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $36 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $31 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 −$3 -7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $97 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $30 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $73 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $65 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $65 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $72 −$4 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $67 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $10 −$1 -14%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $32 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $31 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 18 $75 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 15 $34 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $5 $0 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $10 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $36 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $30 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $30 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $30 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $16 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $15 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $23 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $31 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $31 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $31 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $25 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $24 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $13 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $19 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $31 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.41 · official $0.00 · 386 history records