Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b93…d170 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1
other 34% −$2
politics 11% −$1
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 8 +2.8% -7.0% 50% 12% -9.1%
≤90d 8 +2.8% -7.0% 50% 12% -9.1%
all 40 -4.3% -13.4% 40% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 5% -10.0%
10% -21.7% 2% -18.6%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage464d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $42 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $6 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $13 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $4 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $21 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $12 +$2 +13%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $15 −$4 -28%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $3 $0 -10%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 19 $10 $0 +4%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $2 $0 +6%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 03 $11 $0 -1%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 02 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $9 $0 +4%
Will someone else win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $3 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 11 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $8 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 7h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $13 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $13 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $22 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $13 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.98 (match) · 139 history records