Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:06:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

3B 0x3b8f…3340 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$61 (+31%) realized +$61 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR86%break-even

Win rate86%6W / 1L

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day3.9pace

Kalshi-fit22%portable

Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +86%

net ROI/market (all)+23.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+36.7%	+23.7%	86%	86%	+36.6%
≤30d	7	+36.7%	+23.7%	86%	86%	+36.6%
≤90d	7	+36.7%	+23.7%	86%	86%	+36.6%
all	7	+36.7%	+23.7%	86%	86%	+36.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+23.7%	86%	+36.6%
10%	+11.9%	86%	+23.5%
15%	+1.0%	86%	+11.6%
20%	-8.9%	57%	+0.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 49% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +51% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +37% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×10.9 per $1 lost it wins $10.9

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$29

Realized+$61

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses6 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 9

History coverage3d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day3.9

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$29	$29	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$20	+$10	+50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$27	+$13	+48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$27	+$19	+70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$16	+$11	+70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$10	+$6	+62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$6	−$6	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	+$6	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$29	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$29	12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	66¢	$20	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$27	23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$7	37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$16	45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$10	2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$6	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN	BUY	3¢	$51	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.79 · official $28.79 (match) · 16 history records