Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:58:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3B 0x3b8f…be20 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$170 (-71%) realized −$168 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$170
14 days−$177
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$175
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-63.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -30.2% -36.9% 14% 14% -84.3%
≤30d 12 -59.3% -63.2% 8% 8% -84.7%
≤90d 12 -59.3% -63.2% 8% 8% -84.7%
all 12 -59.3% -63.2% 8% 8% -84.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.2% 8% -84.7%
10% -66.7% 8% -86.2%
15% -69.9% 8% -87.5%
20% -72.9% 8% -88.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$168
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage10d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $25 $24 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $185 −$159 -86%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 $0 -4%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -25%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 +$2 +202%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.68 · official $23.68 (match) · 21 history records