Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3b8c…d3be
weather · 122 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$244 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$354 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,179
Realized−$354
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses87 / 22
Open positions13
Markets (closed)109 / 122
History coverage9d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 13 History 109 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$362
14 days−$354
30 days−$354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? No 86¢ 89¢ $600 $621 +$21 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? No 90¢ 90¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? No 85¢ 86¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? No 92¢ 92¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? No 90¢ 89¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 89¢ 88¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? No 97¢ 96¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? No 94¢ 92¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? No 92¢ 90¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? No 96¢ 94¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? No 92¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? No 91¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 8? No 74¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Yes 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? No 82¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $51 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 11 $51 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 10 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $51 −$32 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $101 −$42 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 65% −$123
other 21% −$234
crypto 14% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $51 45m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $51 45m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $51 45m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $51 45m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $51 46m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $51 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $51 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $51 48m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $51 48m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $51 48m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $51 48m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $51 49m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $51 49m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $51 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $51 59m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -3.4% -12.6% 80% 23% -18.3%
≤30d 109 -3.9% -13.0% 80% 24% -16.7%
≤90d 109 -3.9% -13.0% 80% 24% -16.7%
all 109 -3.9% -13.0% 80% 24% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 24% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 4% -24.7%
15% -29.0% 1% -32.0%
20% -35.9% 1% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,178.62 · official $1,178.62 (match) · 249 history records