Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:02:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b8c…e802 weather 1233 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$664 (+1%) realized +$748 · open −$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate72%1159W / 445L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day90.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,068
7 days−$1,858
14 days−$1,757
30 days−$929
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 732 -58.3% -62.3% 41% 0% -18.9%
≤30d 1604 -22.8% -30.2% 72% 2% -11.3%
≤90d 1604 -22.8% -30.2% 72% 2% -11.3%
all 1604 -22.8% -30.2% 72% 2% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.2% 2% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -36.8% 2% -19.8%
15% -42.9% 2% -27.5%
20% -48.5% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$3,359
Realized+$748
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses1159 / 445
Open positions56
Markets (closed)1604 / 1233
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day90.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 1604 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $260 $262 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18? No 96¢ 100¢ $252 $262 +$9 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? No 96¢ 100¢ $252 $261 +$9 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? No 95¢ 93¢ $180 $178 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 18? No 94¢ 65¢ $258 $177 −$81 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? No 96¢ 92¢ $180 $173 −$8 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $148 $149 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 19? No 96¢ 96¢ $149 $148 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? No 96¢ 93¢ $125 $122 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June 19? No 97¢ 99¢ $102 $104 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? No 94¢ 95¢ $103 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June 19? No 96¢ 93¢ $102 $99 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? No 91¢ 77¢ $102 $86 −$15 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 19? No 98¢ 100¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 19? No 98¢ 97¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? No 98¢ 97¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 443 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 26? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 14? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on March 26? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 20? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 29? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 27? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 13? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or higher on April 23 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 11? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on March 26? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 28? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on March 28? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 15? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 16? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 18 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 10? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 28? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 24? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 12? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 29? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 25? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 25? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on March 26? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 25? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 20? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ap Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 15? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 25? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 27? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on April 3? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 24? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ap Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 17 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 22? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ap Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 16 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 13? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 16? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 28? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on April 22? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 26? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 24? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on April 21? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 15? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 13 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $30 4m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $36 50m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $31 52m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $75 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $75 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $64 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $35 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June BUY No 93¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $128 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $22 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June BUY No 99¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June BUY No 97¢ $51 6h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June BUY No 98¢ $50 7h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June BUY No 95¢ $51 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $51 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $51 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,359.34 · official $3,359.94 (match) · 3500 history records