Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:12:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b8c…afb5 sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$34 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%22W / 17L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days+$102
14 days+$71
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% +$25
other 30% +$105
economics 16% −$30
world 8% +$1
politics 7% +$67
crypto 2% −$38
finance 2% +$60
tech 2% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -7.3% -16.2% 55% 55% +11.2%
≤30d 25 -8.4% -17.1% 56% 56% -0.4%
≤90d 27 +0.9% -8.7% 59% 59% +6.6%
all 39 +5.5% -4.5% 56% 51% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 51% +2.7%
10% -13.7% 49% -7.1%
15% -22.0% 44% -16.1%
20% -29.6% 33% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$24 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses22 / 17
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 44
History coverage347d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $29 $18 −$10 (-36%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 37¢ 10¢ $7 $2 −$6 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $65 +$35 +54%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $26 +$4 +18%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) Jun 25 $22 +$8 +33%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) AND Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5 Jun 25 $51 +$54 +106%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Se Jun 23 $61 +$87 +142%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $81 +$54 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $47 +$34 +72%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $32 +$15 +46%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 +$22 +122%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 +$3 +44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $11 +$4 +34%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$5 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$6 +63%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $136 +$64 +47%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Trump deport 400-500k people? May 23 $28 +$20 +70%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $37 +$60 +162%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Mar 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 06 $38 −$38 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $28 +$52 +186%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $22 +$14 +64%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Jan 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 24 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 24 $13 +$38 +302%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 24 $66 +$4 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 05 $95 −$9 -10%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 06 $40 −$16 -41%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Jul 30 $80 +$6 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 33h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bel BUY 33¢ $30 34h
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) BUY Iraq 81¢ $32 43h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Norway 81¢ $32 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $3 2d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $9 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $6 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $21 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $3 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 75¢ $22 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 85¢ $6 3d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 85¢ $19 3d
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) AND Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5 BUY 48¢ $51 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O BUY 31¢ $51 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Cro BUY 31¢ $34 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Se BUY 41¢ $61 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $81 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $47 8d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 94¢ $47 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $55 8d
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.40 · official $20.40 (match) · 99 history records