Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3B 0x3b8b…a7c8 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate67%20W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 50% −$5
other 28% +$45
crypto 13% +$18
sports 5% −$22
politics 2% −$12
culture 2% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -7.9% -16.7% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -7.9% -16.7% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -18.6% -26.3% 60% 20% -5.0%
all 30 -9.4% -18.0% 67% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 7% -9.7%
10% -25.9% 3% -18.3%
15% -33.0% 3% -26.2%
20% -39.6% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses20 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage534d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 78¢ 77¢ $117 $116 −$1 (-1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $100 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $21 −$4 -18%
Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $204 +$4 +2%
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? Apr 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 05 $11 $0 -2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? Mar 26 $82 +$18 +22%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 27 $108 −$7 -6%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Jan 28 $132 +$1 +0%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31? Dec 29 $320 +$10 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 28 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Dec 28 $209 +$11 +5%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 30 $37 −$22 -60%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 29 $7 +$13 +175%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 29 $29 −$20 -68%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 18 $17 −$12 -69%
Solana ETF approved in 2025? Aug 28 $47 +$4 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Jun 27 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Chris Paul lead the NBA in Assists? Apr 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $16 $0 +1%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Apr 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $21 +$1 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Apr 23 $23 +$1 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Mar 11 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Mar 11 $20 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Mar 11 $22 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Mar 11 $896 +$2 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 10 $18 $0 +0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jan 04 $84 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first? Jan 04 $6 −$4 -72%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 27-Jan 3? Jan 04 $14 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY No 78¢ $118 1h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $17 1h
Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $113 3d
Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $94 8d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $27 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $36 21d
Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 21d
Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $105 62d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 74d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 84d
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 84d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $101 111d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? BUY No 82¢ $82 140d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 0¢ $18 140d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $100 170d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $108 170d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $132 170d
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31? SELL No 92¢ $330 170d
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31? BUY No 88¢ $52 171d
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31? BUY No 88¢ $27 171d
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31? BUY No 88¢ $55 171d
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31? BUY No 88¢ $7 171d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $100 171d
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31? BUY No 90¢ $179 171d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $220 171d
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 200d
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 0¢ $37 231d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 55¢ $20 231d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 231d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.16 · official $217.16 (match) · 270 history records