Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b87…6a47 sports 301 markets active 1h ago coverage 878d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,274 (-3%) realized −$9,327 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%157W / 129L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$891per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$986est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$37,845
14 days−$35,909
30 days−$37,253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$20,461
other 19% −$437
politics 18% +$9,714
world 5% −$110
finance 4% +$970
crypto 2% +$418
culture 2% +$434
tech 1% −$609
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -84.8% -86.2% 7% 7% -94.1%
≤30d 75 -54.6% -59.0% 24% 24% -70.9%
≤90d 127 -16.9% -24.8% 46% 46% -33.6%
all 286 -3.8% -13.0% 55% 52% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 52% -13.0%
10% -21.3% 47% -21.3%
15% -28.9% 37% -28.9%
20% -35.9% 26% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$852) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$460 vs −$638 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

878d coverage
Net worth$2,433
Realized−$9,327
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses157 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$986
Open positions13
Markets (closed)286 / 301
History coverage878d
Avg bet$891
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 56¢ 55¢ $500 $487 −$13 (-3%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $350 $317 −$32 (-9%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $200 $298 +$98 (+49%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $250 $211 −$39 (-15%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+4%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 62¢ $100 $171 +$71 (+71%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 59¢ $100 $151 +$51 (+51%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $150 $111 −$39 (-26%)
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $130 $109 −$21 (-16%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 41¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $102 −$88 -86%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $153 +$205 +134%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $302 +$78 +26%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $101 +$40 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 13 $131 −$131 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Learner Tien Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame Jun 13 $202 −$155 -77%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 13 $165 −$165 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5) Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Karen Khachanov vs Joao Fonseca Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pla Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $153 −$153 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 13 $253 −$253 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 13 $254 −$254 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $153 −$153 -100%
Fils vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group St Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Jun 13 $304 −$304 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FOKUS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Jun 13 $333 −$333 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Fils vs. Zverev: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $562 −$562 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Jun 13 $500 −$484 -97%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Jun 13 $290 −$290 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Sta Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Will FaZe qualify to IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $680 −$680 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $714 −$714 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports (BO5) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 13 $438 −$438 -100%
Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 13 $550 −$550 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Jun 13 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Jun 13 $1,110 −$1,110 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 13 $976 −$976 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $507 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 22¢ $307 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 6¢ $14 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $51 4d
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 4d
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 79¢ $302 4d
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) BUY PARIVISION 66¢ $303 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $101 5d
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 5d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $153 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 13¢ $51 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? AND Will Mexico win on BUY 43¢ $51 6d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 6d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 41¢ $102 7d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 8d
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 48¢ $102 8d
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $102 8d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 8d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $152 8d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 8d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 8d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 8d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 8d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 30¢ $92 8d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $102 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,432.64 · official $2,732.64 · 2145 history records