Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b85…9939 crypto 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17 (-9%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%17W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$6
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 27 +66.5% +50.6% 26% 26% +51.9%
≤90d 91 -19.5% -27.2% 14% 14% -27.0%
all 170 -16.5% -24.4% 10% 10% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 10% -18.2%
10% -31.7% 10% -26.1%
15% -38.3% 10% -33.2%
20% -44.3% 9% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×8.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses17 / 153
Open positions1
Markets (closed)170 / 171
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 147 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +120%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $0 $0 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $1 +$2 +241%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 +$4 +382%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 28 $1 +$10 +994%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $1 +$12 +1167%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 26? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 23 $1 +$8 +821%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 24? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12? May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8? May 06 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 06 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? May 06 $6 +$3 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 06 $4 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 05 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 04 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 04 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 2? May 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2? May 01 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? Apr 29 $1 +$4 +361%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Apr 28 $0 $0 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $1 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? BUY No 16¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? BUY No 16¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? BUY No 2¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? SELL No 16¢ $2 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY No 6¢ $1 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY No 15¢ $3 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? SELL No 32¢ $3 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? SELL No 46¢ $5 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY No 9¢ $1 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? SELL No 2¢ $2 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY No 9¢ $1 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? BUY No 1¢ $1 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY No 1¢ $0 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY No 2¢ $0 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY No 4¢ $1 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? BUY No 1¢ $1 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? SELL No 31¢ $11 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? SELL No 11¢ $13 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.75 (match) · 198 history records