Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:28:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3b81…b68b
crypto · 425 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,445 -34%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,429 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$2,429
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses244 / 469
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions19
Markets (closed)713 / 425
History coverage11d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day300.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 19 History 713 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,835
7 days−$1,934
14 days−$2,429
30 days−$2,429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 78¢ 78¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 68¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Team WE 15¢ 28¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+85%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 62¢ 62¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 59¢ 60¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 58¢ 58¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 4.5 Corners Under 30¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+75%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 33¢ 53¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 64¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner HEROIC Academy 37¢ 41¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 34¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Over 20¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Team Falcons 51¢ 52¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 76¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Monte 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Team WE 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 B8 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner B8 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Bilibili Gaming 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 24? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$81 +836%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 25? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 23? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 22? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$581
sports 2% +$29
weather 1% −$1
world 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 61¢ $0 0m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $2 0m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 34¢ $2 5m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 63¢ $2 7m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 45¢ $1 10m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 46¢ $0 10m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $0 11m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $8 12m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 38¢ $0 13m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 32¢ $2 14m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $2 15m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $3 15m
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY HEROIC Academy 37¢ $2 15m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 79¢ $3 16m
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $1 20m
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $2 21m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 61¢ $3 23m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $3 24m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $2 24m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $2 24m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 60¢ $2 25m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $2 29m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $2 29m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $2 29m
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $2 29m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 17¢ $3 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 86¢ $2 38m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 67¢ $2 39m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $1 39m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 80¢ $1 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-47.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 650 -45.9% -51.0% 34% 22% -52.3%
≤30d 713 -41.8% -47.4% 34% 22% -34.0%
≤90d 713 -41.8% -47.4% 34% 22% -34.0%
all 713 -41.8% -47.4% 34% 22% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover300.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.4% 22% -34.0%
10% ← realistic here -52.4% 13% -40.3%
15% -57.0% 9% -46.1%
20% -61.2% 6% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.77 · official $45.82 (match) · 3500 history records