Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b81…1ae7 crypto 1201 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$579 (-18%) realized −$579 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%363W / 838L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day51.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$36
14 days−$73
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$167
other 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -7.8% -16.6% 52% 33% -15.3%
≤30d 602 -21.2% -28.7% 35% 26% -16.6%
≤90d 1201 -34.2% -40.4% 30% 24% -15.0%
all 1201 -34.2% -40.4% 30% 24% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.4% 24% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -46.1% 15% -23.1%
15% -51.4% 12% -30.6%
20% -56.1% 10% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$579
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses363 / 838
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1201 / 1201
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day51.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1201 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +150%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +166%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +151%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +181%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.13 · official $5.13 (match) · 3500 history records