Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3B 0x3b80…047b world 389 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$457 (+0%) realized +$534 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate91%339W / 35L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$461per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$948now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$341
14 days−$56
30 days+$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$462
politics 6% −$56
other 6% +$87
tech 1% +$21
crypto 0% +$2
sports 0% −$87
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 88% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 104 -0.4% -9.9% 89% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 293 -0.3% -9.8% 90% 2% -9.2%
all 374 -0.1% -9.7% 91% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 1% -17.9%
15% -26.2% 1% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$841) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$35 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$948
Realized+$534
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses339 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)374 / 389
History coverage116d
Avg bet$461
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $245 $250 +$5 (+2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $100 $159 +$59 (+59%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 86¢ 90¢ $86 $90 +$4 (+5%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $50 $85 +$35 (+69%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 91¢ 94¢ $55 $56 +$2 (+3%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $100 $41 −$59 (-59%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 69¢ 72¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+5%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 84¢ 94¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+11%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-69%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? No 86¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 88¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $198 +$2 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $796 +$4 +0%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $4 $0 +6%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $354 +$16 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $391 +$9 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $38 $0 +1%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $498 +$2 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $473 +$5 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $679 +$18 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,149 +$29 +2%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $1,240 −$144 -12%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $190 +$7 +4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $839 −$339 -40%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? Jun 15 $335 +$12 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $395 +$2 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $1,032 −$8 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $1,028 +$2 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $931 +$9 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1,212 +$15 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $495 +$5 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $491 +$9 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $995 +$5 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $2,210 +$14 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,264 +$21 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $619 +$5 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $997 +$4 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,857 +$22 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $191 +$9 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,243 +$24 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 10 $200 $0 +0%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $999 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2,121 +$99 +5%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 09 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $1,633 +$78 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $208 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $58 6m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $1 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $1 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $1 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $1 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $1 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $1 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $1 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $1 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $1 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $1 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $1 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $1 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $1 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $1 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $1 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 71¢ $7 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 71¢ $5 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 71¢ $23 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 70¢ $35 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 71¢ $65 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 70¢ $14 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 69¢ $14 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $56 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 87¢ $44 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $948.41 · official $949.41 (match) · 2413 history records