Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b7c…cacb other 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 237L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$42
sports 23% −$21
politics 8% −$7
economics 7% −$5
culture 6% −$10
crypto 5% −$6
world 4% −$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 169 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage142d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $124 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $539 −$3 -1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $652 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $737 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $945 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $384 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $115 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $251 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $651 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $220 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $187 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $127 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $551 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $972 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $544 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $473 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $287 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $207 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $273 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $461 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $452 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $214 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $234 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $157 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 3h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 5h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 6h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $31 11h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $31 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $55 23h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $55 24h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 26h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 27h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 32h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $56 34h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $56 36h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 38h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 42h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 43h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 45h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 46h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.06 · official $55.06 (match) · 1547 history records