Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b7c…4cbf sports 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,769 (-10%) realized −$4,762 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%37W / 64L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$441per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$579est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$739now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,762
7 days−$8,158
14 days−$7,674
30 days−$7,640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,577
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -63.9% -67.3% 18% 15% -30.4%
≤30d 76 -47.3% -52.3% 26% 24% -28.6%
≤90d 87 -34.4% -40.7% 30% 28% -26.6%
all 101 -21.5% -29.0% 37% 35% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 35% -19.0%
10% -35.8% 32% -26.7%
15% -42.0% 30% -33.8%
20% -47.7% 26% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +47% → late -89% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$417 vs −$313 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$739
Realized−$4,762
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses37 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$579
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 105
History coverage102d
Avg bet$441
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $746 $739 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $850 −$733 -86%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $559 −$555 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $22 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2,208 −$1,000 -45%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,600 +$379 +24%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $403 −$1 -0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $936 +$437 +47%
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3,024 −$1,879 -62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Burnley FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Norway vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $325 −$182 -56%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $78 −$78 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $117 −$117 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $158 −$158 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $87 −$87 -100%
AEK vs. NK Celje: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $192 −$192 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 −$203 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $194 −$194 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $350 −$350 -100%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $180 −$180 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $360 −$360 -100%
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $355 −$355 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $306 −$306 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $320 −$320 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $400 −$400 -100%
SE Palmeiras vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $325 −$325 -100%
KRC Genk vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $535 −$535 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $270 −$270 -100%
AS Roma vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $214 −$214 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $480 −$480 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $758 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 SELL Over 5¢ $117 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $0 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $836 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $7 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $248 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $289 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 SELL Over 42¢ $22 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $21 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY 26¢ $133 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1,008 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $293 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $232 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 31¢ $42 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $4 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $150 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $7 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $150 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $150 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $150 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $500 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $738.74 · official $738.74 (match) · 505 history records