Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b7b…410b world 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%19W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$3
sports 20% −$11
politics 17% +$1
other 16% −$1
economics 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 23 -0.3% -9.8% 35% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 66 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.7%
all 67 -1.6% -10.9% 28% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses19 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage490d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 48¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $11 $0 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $65 −$4 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $32 +$2 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $66 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $32 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $67 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $30 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $31 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $39 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 19 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 18 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $31 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $36 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $32 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $101 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $168 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $33 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $2 $0 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $79 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $29 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $20 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $28 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $11 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $18 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $8 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $29 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $29 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $6 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $23 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $29 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $31 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $31 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $32 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.64 · official $32.64 (match) · 258 history records