Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b79…2886 crypto 1029 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate76%780W / 244L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$35
weather 40% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +0.5% -9.1% 99% 1% -8.2%
≤30d 77 +0.5% -9.1% 99% 1% -8.2%
≤90d 1024 -2.4% -11.7% 76% 18% -9.8%
all 1024 -2.4% -11.7% 76% 18% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 18% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 18% -18.5%
15% -27.8% 17% -26.3%
20% -34.9% 17% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses780 / 244
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1024 / 1029
History coverage74d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1024 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? No 92¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 27? Jun 26 $40 +$10 +24%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 27? Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 27? Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 25? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 25? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on June 25? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 25? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $50 16m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $50 53m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $27 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $22 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? BUY No 87¢ $26 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $45 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 27? BUY No 80¢ $40 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $30 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $15 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 11h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $39 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 13h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $39 16h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $5 20h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $11 20h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $11 20h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $50 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.08 · official $175.08 (match) · 3028 history records