Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:02:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b76…6f22 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,001 (-38%) realized −$1,001 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$386
sports 30% −$224
other 22% −$391
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 36 -26.0% -33.1% 39% 22% -44.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 22% -44.2%
10% -39.5% 11% -49.6%
15% -45.3% 11% -54.5%
20% -50.7% 8% -58.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$53 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,001
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage208d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $16 −$10 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $10 −$8 -83%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS - Map 1 Winner Jan 13 $40 +$16 +39%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) Jan 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 13 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 13 $50 +$4 +9%
No airdrop in 2025? Jan 13 $102 +$20 +20%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 29 $332 −$332 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 28 $2 +$5 +227%
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Dec 28 $2 +$11 +554%
Lighter Airdrop on December 28? Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 27? Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 26? Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 25? Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 24? Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Dec 14 $55 −$23 -42%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 14 $480 −$7 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 13 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Dec 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Dec 01 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November? Dec 01 $220 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November? Dec 01 $110 +$18 +17%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Dec 01 $130 +$5 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Dec 01 $120 +$18 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 01 $82 +$67 +82%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30? Nov 26 $270 −$270 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 18-24? Nov 22 $227 −$227 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 59m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 59m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $2 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 91d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 94d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 94d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 96d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 96d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 97d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS - Map 1 Winner BUY FaZe 72¢ $40 152d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) BUY FaZe 82¢ $40 152d
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 167d
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 167d
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 168d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $50 168d
No airdrop in 2025? BUY No 83¢ $100 168d
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? BUY Yes 62¢ $50 168d
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 168d
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 168d
No airdrop in 2025? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 168d
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? BUY Yes 63¢ $200 168d
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 168d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.00 · official $3.00 (match) · 108 history records