Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:12:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b70…4936 crypto 1539 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$124 (-2%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%856W / 683L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$19
14 days−$119
30 days−$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$343
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +1.8% -7.9% 99% 4% -10.1%
≤30d 184 -5.6% -14.6% 74% 29% -14.6%
≤90d 1539 -2.0% -11.3% 56% 49% -13.4%
all 1539 -2.0% -11.3% 56% 49% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 49% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 45% -21.7%
15% -27.5% 41% -29.2%
20% -34.6% 38% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses856 / 683
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1539 / 1539
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1539 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $121 −$120 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $90 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $90 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $60 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $16 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $60 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records