Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:19:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b70…d02b politics 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 639d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 72L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$18
sports 1% $0
other 1% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 74 -1.8% -11.1% 3% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 1% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

639d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage639d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 29 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 09 $54 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Justin Jefferson win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Nov 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will AS Roma win the Serie A? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Durant lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the Eastern Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hoffenheim win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Valencia CF win La Liga? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Brandon Aiyuk be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "mog" in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lamar Jackson be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Hurts win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Dec 21 $0 $0 -3%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Davis win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Rachel Lord announced as next BlackRock CEO? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 09 $0 $0 -3%
Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $60,000 in November? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alabama win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Matt Gaetz be appointed as the next Florida senator? Nov 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Commerce Secretary? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the Serie A? Nov 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will another team win the Bundesliga? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Real Sociedad win La Liga? Nov 17 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 13h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 33d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 33d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 41d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 41d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 46d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 47d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 55d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 56d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $54 71d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $54 72d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $54 80d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $54 81d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 91d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 92d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $54 103d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $54 104d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 106d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 107d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $54 109d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $54 110d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 116d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 116d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 141d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 177d
Will Justin Jefferson win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? SELL No 100¢ $53 216d
Will Justin Jefferson win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? BUY No 100¢ $53 254d
Will Jalen Hurts win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL No 100¢ $1 555d
Will Jalen Hurts win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY No 100¢ $1 555d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records