Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:14:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b6f…0e1d crypto 1645 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$444 (-6%) realized −$444 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%820W / 824L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$75
14 days−$633
30 days−$943
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$649
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -9.5% -18.1% 51% 50% -18.6%
≤30d 826 -14.6% -22.8% 44% 43% -29.3%
≤90d 1270 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 49% -16.8%
all 1644 -2.8% -12.1% 50% 48% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 48% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 46% -25.1%
15% -28.2% 42% -32.3%
20% -35.2% 34% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$444
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses820 / 824
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1644 / 1645
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1644 Trades
no open positions (166 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$20 +387%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026 BUY 11¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $12 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records