Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

3B 0x3b6d…129b other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

COPY-WORTHYcopy this ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$15 (+3%) realized +$15 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip

Net edge+17%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate54%15W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day12.2pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)+27.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	28	+40.5%	+27.1%	54%	54%	-8.4%
≤30d	28	+40.5%	+27.1%	54%	54%	-8.4%
≤90d	28	+40.5%	+27.1%	54%	54%	-8.4%
all	28	+40.5%	+27.1%	54%	54%	-8.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+27.1%	54%	-8.4%
10%	+14.9%	43%	-17.1%
15%	+3.8%	39%	-25.1%
20%	-6.4%	32%	-32.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +40% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +79% → late +2% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.03 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$40

Realized+$15

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses15 / 13

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions4

Markets (closed)28 / 32

History coverage4d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day12.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 28 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	56¢	56¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	47¢	46¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$81	+$14	+17%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 19	$10	−$9	-92%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	+$3	+28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	+$6	+57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$10	+$8	+79%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$10	+$4	+40%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$10	−$3	-32%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$10	+$14	+140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$7	+73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$13	+63%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	−$5	-47%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$5	+52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$2	+20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	+$5	+48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	+$15	+149%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	+$7	+73%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$6	+$89	+1444%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5)	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$90	−$90	-100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$19	+$4	+20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$10	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$10	1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	SELL Under	100¢	$93	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$10	1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	SELL Yes	3¢	$1	1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	7¢	$1	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	75¢	$71	1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	64¢	$10	2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	35¢	$10	3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	99¢	$13	5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$10	24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$10	24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$10	24h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	SELL Colombia	32¢	$7	24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	60¢	$10	24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$18	30h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	45¢	$10	30h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$10	30h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$10	30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$33	46h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	22¢	$5	46h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	47h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	40¢	$10	47h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	51¢	$10	47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$10	47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	47h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	86¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.67 · official $39.67 (match) · 56 history records