Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b69…f654 other 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%28W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$8
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$8
politics 31% −$4
other 17% −$16
sports 2% −$4
tech 1% −$2
economics 1% −$3
crypto 0% −$2
finance 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 19 -3.2% -12.4% 37% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 39 +3.0% -6.8% 31% 3% -9.8%
all 82 -1.6% -11.0% 34% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 5% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 2% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 2% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses28 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage482d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $164 +$2 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $86 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $150 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $165 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $174 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $16 −$2 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $245 +$6 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $274 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $153 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $142 +$4 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $142 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $56 +$3 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $153 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $14 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $158 −$4 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $11 −$6 -53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $149 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $166 −$7 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $104 −$2 -2%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $116 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $101 +$4 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $25 −$2 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $40 −$14 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 18 $26 $0 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 18 $133 −$5 -4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,125 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $1,025 +$1 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $367 −$2 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $111 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $1,025 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $2 −$1 -97%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $13 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $166 3m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $164 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $75 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $79 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 42h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $150 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $145 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $164 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $165 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $17 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $52 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $9 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $78 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $2 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $11 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $76 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $73 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $163 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $165 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $168 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.11 · official $0.00 · 269 history records