Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3B 0x3b66…6c25 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$125 (+9%) realized +$125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$209
other 21% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +15.3% +4.3% 75% 50% +0.9%
≤30d 4 +15.3% +4.3% 75% 50% +0.9%
≤90d 4 +15.3% +4.3% 75% 50% +0.9%
all 4 +15.3% +4.3% 75% 50% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 50% +0.9%
10% -5.7% 50% -8.8%
15% -14.8% 25% -17.6%
20% -23.1% 0% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$52 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.0 per $1 lost it wins $4.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $618 +$43 +7%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $239 +$96 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $291 −$52 -18%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $221 +$71 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 68¢ $377 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $283 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 59¢ $280 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 49¢ $3 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 68¢ $335 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $335 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $239 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 53¢ $239 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $291 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $292 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $19 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $201 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records