Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b61…cb6a crypto 591 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$171 (-3%) realized −$182 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%343W / 247L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$5
14 days−$24
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$284
sports 1% −$10
other 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -37.7% -43.6% 22% 22% -14.5%
≤30d 204 -4.9% -14.0% 48% 48% -11.4%
≤90d 590 -7.2% -16.1% 58% 57% -12.5%
all 590 -7.2% -16.1% 58% 57% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 57% -12.5%
10% -24.1% 54% -20.8%
15% -31.4% 32% -28.5%
20% -38.2% 22% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses343 / 247
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)590 / 591
History coverage50d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 590 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 100¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+113%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 199 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$33 +325%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $30 +$11 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$3 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$3 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$3 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$3 +129%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $5 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $15 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 26¢ $5 31h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $4 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL No 100¢ $41 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 73¢ $30 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $10 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.28 · official $21.28 (match) · 1062 history records