Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3B 0x3b5e…e91e other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$597 (+2%) realized +$609 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,613per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$821now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$4,162
politics 48% +$4,829
economics 0% −$55
tech 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 14 -15.9% -23.9% 50% 50% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 50% -7.4%
10% -31.2% 43% -16.2%
15% -37.8% 36% -24.3%
20% -43.9% 36% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,189 vs −$1,103 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$821
Realized+$609
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage162d
Avg bet$1,613
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $633 $629 −$4 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e Feb 26 $1,640 +$1,501 +92%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e Feb 26 $5,546 +$797 +14%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 26 $54 −$54 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote? Feb 16 $4,884 −$4,884 -100%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Feb 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%? Feb 09 $1,291 +$1,061 +82%
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? Feb 09 $926 −$921 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%? Feb 08 $4,500 +$1,378 +31%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%? Feb 08 $849 −$784 -92%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 08 $250 +$196 +78%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 07 $2,710 +$2,343 +86%
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port Jan 19 $1,222 +$1,045 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $137 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $514 1h
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 88¢ $100 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 62¢ $100 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 57¢ $100 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 50¢ $10 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 50¢ $100 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 67¢ $100 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 69¢ $100 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 70¢ $100 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 71¢ $100 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 72¢ $10 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY No 72¢ $100 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 75¢ $1,000 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e SELL Yes 25¢ $63 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 79¢ $675 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 40¢ $100 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 57¢ $100 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 57¢ $100 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e SELL Yes 68¢ $12 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e SELL Yes 66¢ $2,364 122d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 28¢ $100 127d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 27¢ $100 128d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 27¢ $100 128d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 26¢ $100 128d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 25¢ $540 128d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e SELL Yes 65¢ $2,539 128d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY Yes 87¢ $351 128d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e BUY No 89¢ $500 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $820.67 · official $820.67 (match) · 91 history records