Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b5c…39a6 world 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$396 (+2%) realized +$398 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$1,440per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$32
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$314
crypto 42% +$29
other 11% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -49.9% -54.7% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -11.6% -20.1% 71% 14% -8.0%
≤90d 11 -6.8% -15.6% 82% 9% -7.8%
all 13 -5.4% -14.5% 85% 8% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 8% -7.8%
10% -22.6% 0% -16.6%
15% -30.1% 0% -24.7%
20% -37.0% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$5 · ×6.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×36.83 per $1 lost it wins $36.83
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$1,198
Realized+$398
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,440
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,000 $999 −$1 (-0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $401 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $3,211 +$32 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $801 +$40 +5%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $3,058 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $4,189 −$10 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,092 +$130 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 11 $2,956 +$104 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $973 +$2 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $945 +$28 +3%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $942 +$3 +0%
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $924 +$18 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 25 $908 +$16 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 1h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $401 34h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $401 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 15d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL No 100¢ $841 16d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $801 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $993 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3,211 17d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,990 17d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,223 17d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,222 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,222 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1,092 25d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,089 25d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3,058 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,060 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2,956 44d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2,956 48d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,993 68d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $975 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $973 84d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 96¢ $973 85d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 93¢ $945 86d
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $945 86d
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $942 94d
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $942 94d
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $924 111d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $924 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $908 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,198.33 · official $1,198.33 (match) · 48 history records