trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -49.9% | -54.7% | 50% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -11.6% | -20.1% | 71% | 14% | -8.0% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -6.8% | -15.6% | 82% | 9% | -7.8% |
| all | 13 | -5.4% | -14.5% | 85% | 8% | -7.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.5% | 8% | -7.8% |
| 10% | -22.6% | 0% | -16.6% |
| 15% | -30.1% | 0% | -24.7% |
| 20% | -37.0% | 0% | -32.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $1,000 | $999 | −$1 (-0%) |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 86¢ | 86¢ | $200 | $199 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by October 31, 2026? | Jun 22 | $401 | +$1 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 09 | $3,211 | +$32 | +1% |
| Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | Jun 07 | $801 | +$40 | +5% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | Jun 06 | $3,058 | +$21 | +1% |
| Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? | Jun 06 | $4,189 | −$10 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1,092 | +$130 | +12% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | May 11 | $2,956 | +$104 | +4% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | Apr 01 | $973 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 30 | $945 | +$28 | +3% |
| Will UK strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 29 | $942 | +$3 | +0% |
| Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 21 | $924 | +$18 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? | Feb 25 | $908 | +$16 | +2% |