Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b5c…2541 weather 300 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$184 (-2%) realized −$185 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate91%258W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$238
14 days−$210
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -1.9% -11.2% 89% 4% -18.9%
≤30d 269 -0.1% -9.6% 90% 3% -10.9%
≤90d 285 -0.2% -9.7% 91% 3% -11.3%
all 285 -0.2% -9.7% 91% 3% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 3% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 1% -19.8%
15% -26.3% 0% -27.5%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$15 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$185
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses258 / 27
Open positions15
Markets (closed)285 / 300
History coverage34d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18? No 96¢ 99¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 98¢ 93¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? No 91¢ 94¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? No 98¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $36 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or below on June 16? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $23 33m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $13 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.74 · official $144.74 (match) · 1566 history records