Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:54:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3b5b…0970
crypto · 19 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$129 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$85 · open −$44
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$492
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)13 / 19
History coverage14d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 6 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$85
14 days−$85
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 41¢ 34¢ $145 $121 −$24 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $80 $84 +$4 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $51 $40 −$11 (-21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 22¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 20¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 25¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 20¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 30¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 30¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 30¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 18¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 +$44 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 08 $29 +$21 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 07 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 07 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 07 $16 +$24 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $20 +$20 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% −$44
crypto 35% −$129
sports 3% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 5m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $13 10m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $2 10m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 10m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 10m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 10m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $48 10m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 40m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $46 42m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 6h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -20.5% -28.1% 38% 38% -32.1%
≤30d 13 -20.5% -28.1% 38% 38% -32.1%
≤90d 13 -20.5% -28.1% 38% 38% -32.1%
all 13 -20.5% -28.1% 38% 38% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 38% -32.1%
10% -35.0% 38% -38.6%
15% -41.3% 38% -44.5%
20% -47.0% 38% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492.17 · official $492.21 (match) · 125 history records