Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b5a…91b4 sports 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%17W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$7
politics 23% −$3
other 15% −$2
crypto 9% −$1
world 8% −$1
culture 8% −$1
economics 5% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 154 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses17 / 137
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
History coverage157d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $100 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $23 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 15 $34 $0 -1%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $179 −$5 -3%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 19 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $122 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $194 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $111 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $70 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $132 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $284 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 19 $80 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $111 −$1 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $186 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $151 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $72 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 13 $60 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $42 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $42 7h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $32 12d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $32 12d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $23 25d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL No 95¢ $34 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY No 96¢ $34 33d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 88¢ $1 115d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 87¢ $43 117d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $49 117d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $40 117d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $40 117d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? SELL No 91¢ $5 117d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $41 117d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY No 91¢ $5 117d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $41 117d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $44 117d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $44 117d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? SELL No 91¢ $41 117d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY No 91¢ $41 117d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $49 117d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $49 117d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $17 117d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $29 117d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $17 117d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $19 117d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $48 117d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 117d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 594 history records