Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:02:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3B 0x3b58…81a5 other 109 markets active 7h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$11
politics 18% −$5
economics 7% −$2
sports 4% −$3
world 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.5% -39.8% 0% 0% -16.3%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 12% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 97 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 9% -9.6%
all 107 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 8% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 8% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 7% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 95
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage95d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $125 $126 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $80 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $441 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $240 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $207 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $431 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $456 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $378 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $420 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $410 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $212 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,187 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $196 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $193 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $215 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $205 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $194 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $412 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $205 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $216 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $213 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 28 $217 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 18 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $217 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $384 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $198 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 7h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 10h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 7d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $8 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 9d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $125 11d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 12d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 16d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 16d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 20d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 21d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 21d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 23d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 23d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $42 25d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $42 25d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $46 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.67 · official $182.67 (match) · 312 history records