Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b58…0191 other 250 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$20
14 days−$33
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$50
sports 20% −$14
politics 9% −$7
culture 5% −$6
economics 5% −$4
crypto 5% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)250 / 250
History coverage138d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 250 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $306 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $905 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $461 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $868 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $485 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $553 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $285 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $567 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $292 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $78 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $319 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $615 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $559 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $427 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $151 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $431 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $217 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $297 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $459 −$2 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $449 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $315 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $230 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $310 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $568 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $153 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $162 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $229 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $173 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 12m
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 1h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $6 3h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $6 5h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 9h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 11h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 19h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 21h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 21h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 23h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 24h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 25h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 28h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 29h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 31h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 33h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 34h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 36h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 40h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 41h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 43h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 45h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $61 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $61 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1458 history records