Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b53…eb39 crypto 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$75 (+0%) realized −$52 · open +$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%15W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$552per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$282
7 days−$282
14 days−$281
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$1,065
other 12% −$515
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-81.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 60 -93.3% -94.0% 7% 0% -42.1%
≤90d 83 -79.9% -81.8% 18% 0% -21.0%
all 83 -79.9% -81.8% 18% 0% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -81.8% 0% -21.0%
10% -83.6% 0% -28.6%
15% -85.2% 0% -35.5%
20% -86.6% 0% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$29 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$517
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$127
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses15 / 68
Open positions40
Markets (closed)83 / 28
History coverage89d
Avg bet$552
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $125 $125 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 19¢ $7 $75 +$68 (+1000%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 15¢ $7 $59 +$53 (+775%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $7 $55 +$48 (+715%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $7 $40 +$33 (+484%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $7 $32 +$26 (+377%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $7 $23 +$16 (+241%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $7 $22 +$16 (+229%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $7 $18 +$11 (+164%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+87%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+81%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-26%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-26%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-38%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-67%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-73%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-91%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $125 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $125 10d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $124 18d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $124 21d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $124 24d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $123 32d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $123 37d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $122 45d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $120 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 98¢ $118 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $118 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $118 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $117 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $117 72d
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $117 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $117 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $117 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $117 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $117 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $195 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,500 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,642 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $11,366 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $109 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $109 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $109 79d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $180 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.69 · official $516.70 (match) · 239 history records